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Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. - Page 46 - CryptoHeresy ⚡️

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#451
Date : 16th September 2020.

FX Update September 16 – A weaker USD ahead of the FED.
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EURUSD has rallied by just over 50 pips from the intraday low in posting a high at 1.1882. This swings yesterday’s six-day peak at 1.1901 back into scope. Dollar weakness is driving the move, which is being facilitated by strong gains in Cable (0.6%) and in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD (both 0.5%). USDJPY touched the key psychological 105.00, S2 and new seven-week low from a pivot yesterday at 105.50 and highs last week of 106.38.
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Regarding the FOMC, no changes are expected in policy, and while the central bank will likely present upward revisions to US economic projections, the recently codified lower-for-longer monetary policy regime is driving a bearish dollar sentiment. The Dollar is also correlating inversely with global stock markets. These factors appear to be outweighing recent ECB signalling about its concerns about euro strength, which partly counterbalances the easing measures implemented earlier in the year. The Pound has rallied to six-day highs against both the Dollar and Euro.
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Cable‘s high is 1.2976. The gains in the UK currency have been concurrent with market narratives showing a measure of incredulity about the UK government’s insistence that it is serious about its threat to leave the EU’s single market at year-end without a new trade deal, given the massive near-term disruptive impact it would have on the economy and the divisions appearing within the Conservative Party and among UK nations. Even though the controversial Internal Market Bill sailed through the House of Commons, the proposed legislation is likely to have a tougher time in the House of Lords, and in any case there are suspicions that the legislation is merely a gambit of PM Johnson and his cabinet to up the ante and strengthen their negotiating position into the final weeks of talks. This fits with expectations that a more practical attitude will be seen in trade negotiations once state leaders become directly involved in the run-in to the October 15th-16th EU summit. This backdrop has lessened the bearish conviction markets have with regard to the Pound.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#452
Date : 17th September 2020.

The Guppy dips to 135.00, having stalled at 136.00.
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GBPJPY, Daily

Both the UK and Japan are in the middle of political upheavals, (the Brexit Trade talks and Internal Market Bill on one side and the handover from one political dynasty to his trusted lieutenant on the other. Earlier today we had the BOJ signalling No Change to current policy as the new PM Suga completes his first few days in the role. The BOE has just published their statement¹ and minutes from their latest meeting, and again it’s no change across the board, (excuse the pun), although the spectre of negative interest rates in the UK is more firmly “in the toolbox” than ever before. The BOE continues to negotiate the tricky ground around monetary policy with the backdrop of deteriorating UK-EU relations and the likelihood of PM Johnson overseeing a very limited trade deal with the EU, if one is agreed at all. The Brexit endgame showdown is very much “in-play”.

BOE highlights include – “stands ready to adjust monetary policy”, and to
“keep under review the range of actions” – taken as a nod to possible negative rates next year with the statement that the MPC has been briefed on the BoE’s plans to explore how a negative bank rate could be implemented effectively. It also “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

Cable continues to rotate around 1.2900 today, whilst EURGBP jumped from 0.9090 to 0.9150 and GBPJPY plunged to 135.00 a level not seen since July 20, some 42 trading days ago.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#453
Date : 18th September 2020.

FX Update September 18 – A volatile 24hrs.
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The Dollar has scraped out a two-day low at 92.76 in the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, with EURUSD concurrently pegging a two-day high at 1.1868, gaining quite sharply from yesterday’s five-week low at 1.1736. A steadying in stock markets today has seen the Dollar ebb back after finding safe haven demand during the worst of this week’s sharp sell-off across global equity markets.
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The Pound has come under modest pressure against most other currencies. Cable posted an intraday low at 1.2941. The WHO is warning of a serious second wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe¹ (Germany recorded 2,179 cases yesterday) on the back of a surge in new cases (despite data showing a continued very low rate of death alongside a relatively low incidence of Covid being listed on death certificates). In the UK, coronavirus cases and, with it, corona-panic are surging. Localised lockdowns are now affecting 10 million people in the UK, and the government’s scientific advisory group are, according to an FT report, advising the government to implement a two-week national lockdown. The embattled Health Secretary (Matt Hancock) this morning called it a “last line of defence” but “will do whatever is necessary”. This is a negative backdrop for the Pound, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit endgame, and with the minutes from the BoE MPC meeting yesterday affirming that the central bank is at full steam on contingency planning for negative interest rates (although stressing that it is not ready to do so yet).
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Elsewhere, USDJPY has settled in the mid 104.00s, testing the seven-week low seen yesterday at 104.52. Yen crosses have also rebounded out of lows. Both EURJPY and AUDJPY lifted above their respective Thursday highs. Japan’s core CPI came in at -0.4%y/y, matching expectations, but the NZDJPY was the biggest mover, moving over +0.6% as the Kiwi holds its bid.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#454
Date : 21st September 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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After an exciting week, the markets continue to digest central bank decisions while waiting for a fresh catalyst. Rising virus infections around the world remain in focus as there is the fear that the equality of hospitalization and deaths will change if the virus spreads from young holiday markets to older generations, and with restrictions ramped up again there is concern that economic activity will be hit again. Meanwhile US-China tensions and no-trade deal Brexit is back in play after BoE was briefed on negative rates. Markets will also be guided by hard economic data.

Monday – 21 September 2020

Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) –The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

Tuesday – 22 September 2020

RBA’s Debelle, BoE’s Governor Bailey and Fed Chair’s Powell speech

Wednesday – 23 September 2020

Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the OCR (Official Cash Rate) at the current record low 0.25%. RBNZ Governor Orr, speaking in the first week of September, stressed again that the central bank is actively preparing a new package of measures to implement if necessary. That could include negative wholesale interest rates, further quantitative easing and direct lending to banks. The RBNZ is in the low-for-longer whatever-it-takes boat with the bulk of the world’s central banks.
Markit Services and Composite PMIs (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prelim. EU Markit PMI Indices are expected to continue above 50, but slightly decline on Services, which could result in a composite PMI for September at 51.6 from 51.7.
Markit Services and Composite PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The prelim. UK Markit Service PMI Indices is expected to have improved in September to 59.5. The ongoing recovery in the service sector could continue to be the dominant upward driver of the composite figure. The government’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme is behind the so far strength in activity.
Markit Services and Composite PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – The prelim. US Markit Service PMI for September is seen lower at 54.9, after the 55.0 in the final read for August. In August the composite index dipped to 54.6 in the final version versus the 54.7 preliminary, though it’s up from July’s 50.3.
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BOJ minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

Thursday – 24 September 2020

Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The influence of the SNB’s intervening hand may have been in play this month. Total Swiss sight deposits of Francs have risen by 130 bln since the pandemic and consequential lockdowns took a grip on global markets back in March. Sight deposits can be viewed as a proxy marker of SNB intervention to sell Francs in forex markets (after buying foreign currencies), which results in the crediting of newly created Francs in commercial banks sight accounts. The rise in sight deposits also reflects SNB operations to boost liquidity via the COVID-19 refinancing facility. The advent of the EU’s recovery fund (a new liquid AAA fund that also reduces Eurozone breakup risks), seen as a milestone by many analysts, has by many accounts caused a re-weighting of the common currency in portfolios, which will help the SNB combat what it sees as a chronically overvalued Franc. The SNB would like to step out of the negative interest rate policy sooner rather than later, but with the world economy still in the grip of Covid-19 and data releases highlighting the fallout from the crisis, there is little the central bank can do if it wants to keep the currency under control.
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to rise to 94 from 92.6 in August.
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 860k in the week ended September 12 after a revised 893k print in the September 5 week. This is the fourth reading with claims below 1 mln since the surge in the March 20 week.
BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 14:00)

Friday – 25 September 2020

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% in August with a 3.1% climb in transportation orders, after an 11.4% headline orders climb in July that included a 35.7% transportation orders surge. The durable orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 1.5%. Defense orders are pegged at 0.9%, following a 33.4% July pop. Boeing orders rose to 8 planes from zero orders in July. The vehicle assembly rate should improve to 12.1 mln from 11.9 mln units in July, versus a 0.1 mln trough in April. Durable shipments should rise 2.5%, and inventories should fall -0.6%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#455
Date : 22nd September 2020.

FX Update September 22 – USD, YEN, AUD & GBP all in play.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky

AUDJPY, Daily

The Dollar and Yen have remained firm and pushed ahead of Monday’s highs. The Australian Dollar has been the major mover of note out of the main currencies we track, falling to new lows after RBA deputy governor Debelle said that the central bank is watching the currency “carefully” and that forex intervention is a policy option, as is negative interest rates (while stressing that this doesn’t mean it’s on the table). AUDUSD hit a low at 0.7177 to post a new four-week low, while AUDJPY posted a fresh seven-week low at 75.10. Elsewhere, EURUSD moved lower to post a new seven-week low at 1.1724. Cable also remained heavy, pushing to 1.2710, before recovering the 1.2800 handle following Governor Bailey’s defence of the need to use negative interest rates. The governor said that “we have looked very hard” at ways of adding further monetary stimulus, including negative interest rates. Bailey, who was speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce, subsequently said that last week’s note in the minutes from the MPC meeting, that members had been briefed on negative interest rate preparations, “did not imply” that the BoE would adopt negative rates. This seemed to inspire the snap back in the Pound. USDJPY settled in the mid 104.00s after rebounding out of yesterday’s six-month low at 104.00, and what appears to be BOJ intervention. EURJPY also traded above yesterday’s low, though ebbed back under 123.00 after peaking at a rebound high at 123.35. GBPJPY broke below 133.00 briefly, but rallied to hold 134.00, following the Governor’s comments.
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A risk-off theme has continued in global markets, although price changes in assets and currencies have moderated somewhat today relative to yesterday. This backdrop is supportive for the Dollar and Yen, though some market narratives are pointing to a rise in some inflation-adjusted (aka real) JGB yields as being yen positive. Japanese markets reopened from a long weekend. The Nikkei 225 managed a modest gain, but this was the exception as most Asian markets continued to drop, and some quite sharply (South Korea’s KOPSI, for instance, racking up a loss of over 2.5%). S&P 500 minis have also declined in its overnight session, although only moderately. Most commodity prices have managed to steady, however, and the pace of declines in global stocks has, overall, lessened. Nonetheless, the prevailing bias across markets is one of caution. Many European countries are implementing restrictions in the face of a surging coronavirus case-demic (still no significant correspondence in public health issues, i.e. hospitalisations, mortality), which has clobbered stocks in the airline and hospitality sectors. The US Congress remains deadlocked over the size and shape of a new fiscal support bill, while uncertainty about the upcoming US election (6 calendar weeks but only 31 trading days away) is also causing market participants to tread cautiously.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#456
Date : 23rd September 2020.

FX Update – September 23 – Day 3 of Dollar Gains.
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EURUSD, H1

The Dollar is up for a third consecutive day, even managing gains against the Yen as global stock markets lifted out of recent correction lows. Solid US data yesterday, including the August existing home sales and the September Richmond Fed index, have been in the mix, alongside a flurry of dovish signalling from central bank policymakers. BoJ Governor Kuroda earlier stressed that the Fed’s recent policy regime change is similar to the stance the Japanese central bank took in 2016, which he described as an overshooting strategy. He said that the BoJ won’t hesitate to take additional easing steps if necessary. Policymakers at the ECB, BoE and RBA have been similarly ramping up dovish signalling in the wake of the Fed’s move in late August, not wanting to see their respective currencies rise against the Dollar in these disinflationary times. ECB’s Mersch is the latest, cited by Bloomberg today saying that it is obvious that the exchange rate influences inflation.
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Expectations for the RBA to cut rates again are also cementing, which has been concomitant with recent declines in iron ore and other commodity prices. The flagging pace in global economic growth is marring the outlook for resources, which is the prime influencer of the export-oriented Australian economy’s terms of trade. Westpac analysts are expecting an easing at the October 6th RBA policy review, while a NAB research note is calling for a rate cut at either the October or November meetings. AUDUSD dropped 0.6% in posting a six-week low at 0.7113, extending losses from last week’s highs around 0.7350. AUDJPY fell by 0.5%, foraying further into 10-week low terrain. The USD Index (DXY) printed an eight-week high at 94.24, while EURUSD lifted to an eight-week low at 1.1673. USD-PY edged above 105.00. Cable hit a two-month low at 1.2681, marking a 6% decline from the high seen in early September. The Pound also saw moderate declines versus the Euro and Yen, among other currencies, amid a bearish mix of new Covid restrictions in the UK, the upcoming expiry of the government’s wage support scheme, and Brexit endgame uncertainties.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#457
Date : 24th September 2020.

US Claims Disappoint, again & Equities under pressure.
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USA500, H1 & Daily

A 4,000 initial claims rise to 870,000 in the third week of September followed a -27,000 drop to 866,000 in the BLS survey week, leaving a disappointing rise as we now log the fourth week with the new additive seasonal factors. We saw a -167,000 continuing claims drop to a modestly higher than expected 12.58 million in the BLS survey week, after a downward bump that left a -797,000 decline to 12.747 million in the first week of September. The insured jobless rate fell to 8.6% from 8.7%, versus a 17.1% peak in the second week of May and a 1.2% cycle-low for nearly two years ending in mid-March.
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Initial claims are averaging 875,000 thus far in September, versus higher prior averages of 992,000 in August and 1.34 million in July. The 866,000 BLS survey week reading undershot prior BLS survey week readings of 1.104 million in August and 1.422 million in July. We saw a 4.442 million peak in April and a 203,000 prior cycle-low in April of 2019. We now have a continuing claims drop of -1.912 million between the August and September BLS survey weeks, though this measure is clouded by the seasonal adjustment switch that left one procedure for the August figure and another for September. We saw prior declines of -2.459 million in August, -2.28 million in July, and -1.61 million in June. September nonfarm payroll consensus remains around 900,000, though today’s data adds some risk to the forecasts and could be amended into next week.
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The US Equity markets, which have seen Futures under pressure all day following yesterday’s significant declines (Nasdaq closed down by over 3% and the S&P 500 lost over 2.3%) are weaker again, with the USA500 trading at 3230 in early trades, 30 points above the key 3200 support level, but still 130 points above the vital 200-day moving average at 3,100.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#458
Date : 29th September 2020.

Time for the first face-off.
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The first presidential debate is due to take place today, ahead of an election that is turning into a major event risk.

At the same time markets are waiting for developments on further US stimulus measures as US Democrats released a USD 2.2 trillion proposal in a bid to break the deadlock in talks with Republicans. The debate is at 01:00 GMT while the focus turns on any potential market fallout especially as it coincides with indications of a possible approval of the fiscal stimulus but crucial with the approach of month- and quarter-end which could exacerbate volatility.

Additionally in the US this week, there is also the threat of massive layoffs/furloughs from the airlines come October 1 as the CARES package provisions expire. Data remains thin for now. September consumer confidence headlines Tuesday, and is followed Wednesday with the ADP private payroll report, September ISM, vehicle sales, August income and consumption. Thursday has the high frequency jobless claims before Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls release.

Now in regards to tonight’s debate, the importance of it does not rely solely due to the fact that is the every first debate but mainly because it might present the clear winner especially this year in which the candidates have not been as highly visible with limited campaigns done because of Covid-19.

The candidates will be questioned for 90 minutes, without commercial breaks, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates. Ahead of the debate the vulnerable one look to be Trump following a New York time report that the president paid no income tax for 11 years. However is an excellent brutally effective debater so it will interesting to see how he will overcome any attacks. Please note that in some states voting has already started via mail or in person.

The debate will take place at Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, while the topics selected by Wallace, moderator of the first 2020 presidential debate, are the:

The Trump and Biden Records
The Supreme Court
Covid-19
The Economy
Race and Violence in our Cities
The Integrity of the Election
Below you can also find the latest national polls prior the debate.

Based on UBS research below we enclose the campaign policy platform of each Party:
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What is the 2020 Republican Party platform?
President Trump abandoned the usual practice of endorsing a lengthy campaign policy platform in conjunction with the GOP national nominating convention. Instead, he released an abbreviated written agenda for a planned second term in office. The GOP policy statement is largely aspirational, with fewer details than one is accustomed to seeing from a presidential candidate. The president’s proposed fiscal policies include additional tax cuts for individuals and federal tax credits and deductions for corporations that repatriate jobs to the US from overseas locations. The statement also explicitly supports additional capital gains tax relief through an expansion of the Opportunity Zone program.

Numerous provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, but the president does not discuss how the resulting tax hikes will be averted. Absent additional congressional action, the individual income tax cuts, an increase in the standard deduction, and the expanded child tax credit will all revert to prior levels in just over five years. Voters are left to assume that the president will be able to convince Congress to make the tax cuts permanent.

The policy statement, which was released in conjunction with his acceptance speech, also focuses on the adoption of a more adversarial posture toward China, strict enforcement of immigration laws, and support for law enforcement personnel. While all three are viewed by the GOP as winning campaign strategies, the reference to “ending our reliance on China” suggests that the president is willing to continue to use tariffs as a tool of foreign policy if elected to a second term. He has threatened to selectively impose tariffs upon, and to strip government contracts from, companies that refuse to relocate their operations to the US.

Meanwhile, in a rare instance of tacit agreement with his challenger, the president reaffirmed a desire to cut prescription drug prices, lower healthcare insurance premiums, and require coverage of all preexisting conditions. On the whole, the impact of the president’s policies on Treasury receipts (and on the US economy generally) is difficult to calculate. Whether or not this is purposeful is debatable, but the inevitable conclusion is that a second Trump administration would be similar to the first and forced to rely on deficit financing to accomplish its goals.
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What is the 2020 Democratic Party platform?
In contrast to the president’s abridged policy statement, the Democratic Party platform is a protracted recitation of policies as disparate as the need for federal bankruptcy reform, a Green New Deal, and reinvestment in rural America. The Biden campaign has not released a consolidated fiscal plan but instead weaved his call for higher taxes to partially fund a series of spending proposals related to infrastructure investment, climate change, and an expansion of healthcare coverage. At its core, however, the Biden campaign is focused on strengthening the federal regulatory regime, reversing many of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and increasing federal funding of long-time Democratic policy priorities.

The former vice president advocates an increase in the highest marginal tax rate to 39.6%, and higher payroll taxes for individuals earning more than USD 400,000 a year. He also proposes to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income for taxpayers earning more than USD 1 million. The corporate tax rate is targeted for an increase, albeit less than the rate prevalent before the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The corporate tax rate would increase from 21% to 28%, and an alternative minimum tax of 15% would be levied on companies that report more than USD 100 million in book income.

The Democratic campaign platform also takes aim at the estate tax by recommending a reduction in the exemption to USD 3.5 million and the elimination of the stepped-up basis rule. Tax preferences for the fossil fuel industry would be eliminated, while those for energy efficiency would be increased. With the exception of the payroll tax increase, most of Biden’s fiscal policy platform could be implemented with a majority vote in the Senate through budget reconciliation.

The Tax Policy Center has estimated that Biden’s tax proposals would increase federal revenue by about USD 4 trillion between 2021 and 2030, or 1.5% of GDP over a decade.1 Roughly half of the revenue gain would be derived from higher taxes on US households, with the remainder coming from businesses and corporations. The Tax Foundation expects the Biden tax plan to reduce after-tax income for the top 1% of taxpayers by 7.8%. The top 5% would see their after-tax income drop by 1.1%, with diminishing reductions thereafter as income declines.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#459
Date : 30th September 2020.

ADP, NFP and the change in their correlation.
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Today ADP reported a 749k sure in private payroll employment in September, almost double the 400k expectation, after an upwardly revised 481k (was 428k) increase in August.

There were solid gains across industries. The service sector added another 552k jobs, with the goods sector adding 196k. Manufacturing jobs were up a hefty 130k. In services, trade/transport posted a big 186k gain, while leisure/hospitality jobs increased 92k, and education/health employment was up 90k. Professional/business services added 78k jobs. The ADP gains have massively undershot improvement in BLS payrolls and other labor market indicators since the growth rebound began, suggesting that this could continue despite this month’s solid gain. However please note that during the pandemic year ADP has done an awful job as an indicator of NFP number. In general after since May we have seen the absence of correlation between the ADP employment change figures with Nonfarm Payrolls.

The September Nonfarm Payroll gain is seen at 900k, as most measures of output extended their rebounds in September. Initial claims have slowly tightened, and we saw another big -1,912k continuing claims plunge between the August and September BLS survey weeks. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady from 8.4%, alongside a 0.8% September hours-worked increase with a 34.6 workweek and hourly earnings to be unchanged, following August’s 0.4% rise, as the measure gives back more of the 4.7% April pop with the shift in the composition of jobs back toward lower-paid workers. The nonfarm payroll forecast assumes a 1,075k private jobs increase.
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Seasonal Trends and Weather

For disruptions to employment from weather as gauged in the household survey, the biggest disruptions occur in the winter months generally with the average peaking in February. There is an additional climb through the late-summer months due to disruptive hurricanes in some years. This September has seen hurricane activity but they’ve been less disruptive than some of the major events in years past, leaving modest upside weather-risk for payrolls. Of course, any weather related disruptions will be eclipsed by COVID-19.
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Hourly Earnings

As stated above, a flat figure for September average hourly earnings is anticipated, after gains of 0.4% in August and 0.2% in July, but drops of -1.3% in June and -1.1% in May, as we further unwind the 4.7% April surge. Job losses have been skewed toward lower paid retail, leisure and hospitality workers, and this prompted the April spike in average hourly earnings that is now being reversed. A 4.6% y/y increase in September from 4.7% in August is forecasted.

Continuing and Initial Claims

Continuing claims fell -1,912k between the September and August BLS survey weeks, after a drop of -2,459k between August and July, and a -2,280k drop between June and July survey. The economy is unwinding the 24,912k continuing claims peak in the second week of May. Initial claims fell to 866k in the September BLS survey week from 1,104k in the August survey week, and 1,422k in the July survey week. The September initial claims anticipate to average at 870k from 992k in August.
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Conclusion

Employment should rose further with output in September, despite delayed stimulus and ongoing disruptions in the re-opening process. The September hours-worked is expected to increase of 0.8%, with a 34.6 workweek, while hourly earnings remain flat. The jobless rate should hold steady at 8.4%, leaving the rate below the 9.98% cycle-high from the last recession in October of 2009.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#460
Date : 1st October 2020.

Brexit headlines driving the markets.
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The UK currency took a sharp rotation lower on Brexit related developments. Weighing were reports that the EU and UK are struggling on key issues in trade negotiations, and with the European Commission president von de Leyen announcing that the EU has taken the first step in a legal infringement procedure against the UK in relation to the controversial Internal Market Bill. However later on an FT report cited UK officials with inside knowledge saying that the EU and UK have reached a compromise on the state aid issue, contrary to an earlier Reuters article, which had cited EU sources. Fishing rights remains a sticking point, apparently.

The EU recovery fund is likely to be delayed just as nearly all European countries are ratcheting up Covid restrictions. And this comes amid the ECB campaign of verbal intervention to keep a lid on the Euro. Similar messaging from other central banks, including the BoE and RBA, has also contributed to an overall weakening in the strongly bearish Dollar bias that forex market participants had until recently. The rhetorical interjections countervail the impact of the Fed’s regime shift to a lower-for-longer stance on interest rates.

In Europe, positive Covid test results have continued to soar in most countries. Covid hospitalisations and mortality, while bumping higher over the last week in many countries, still remain at basement levels relative to the March/April peak. The ratio between Covid-caused death and flu- and pneumonia-caused death also remains low, again contrasting markedly to the March/April situation. Nonetheless, the trend in most countries in Europe is for tighter restrictions and more localized lockdowns, which should limit the upside scope of the Euro.

EURUSD earlier posted a 9-day high at 1.1769. EURJPY gained, too, with both the Dollar and Yen having softened amid a backdrop of mostly higher global stock markets. EURGBP dove about 90 pips in returning to levels around 0.9065-75. Heads of state will bring the issue to a resolution at the October 15th-16th EU summit. The odds for a deal being struck now appear much greater, though how extensive any deal will be remains uncertain, and there is a risk that the UK will see a downward jolt in its terms of trade when it leaves the EU’s single market on January 1.
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European stock markets have pared early gains. The UK100 outperformed as the Pound sold off and the UK Gilt future is currently down by 0.2%, while the GER30 underperformed and lost most of its early gains amid the rise in local virus case numbers and with Bayer AG under pressure after a profit warning. This comes in contrast to the European final manufacturing PMIs, which confirmed the improvement in sentiment.

The UKGilt has had a key downside move that is potentially outlook changing, breaking the 200-Day MA and resuming the 2-month downtrend. The UKGilt is heading towards the support band 135.30/135.00. The rebound from 134.20 to 136.98 last week is now the medium term resistance area. Given the deterioration in momentum we have seen, with RSI into the 40s and MACD lines sustaining a move into negative area, the outlook is becoming increasingly worrying for the bulls. If this 200-Day MA at 136 continues to be seen as a sell zone, the downside pressure will grow. Initial Support, at 50% Retracement level on year’s rally and 50-week SMA, is a key level. If this is breached on a closing basis it would open 132.80-132.00 which is the year’s low area, however a strong obstacle will be the 61.8% fib level at 134.00. How the market reacts around 134.00 would then be the key as to whether this is a near term upswing or something far more bearish.

Generally though investor sentiment was boosted by headlines suggesting progress on the next US stimulus package, and US futures are up 0.8 to 1.3%, with the USA100 outperforming. The vote on the Democratic proposal was delayed to give negotiators more time to come up with a compromise deal as Fed officials warn against delaying a new aid deal until next year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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