Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#181
Date : 8th October 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th October 2019.

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FX News Today

* German industrial production better than expected at 0.3% m/m. The unexpected expansion in August comes despite ongoing contraction in orders and a deterioration in business sentiment.

* European Outlook: European stock markets closed with broad gains, despite mounting signs that U.K. PM Johnson is positioning for a failure in Brexit talks with the EU, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, but makes the risk of a no-deal scenario ever more tangible as Johnson lays the ground for a “people-versus-parliament” election. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia.

* World Bank warns Brexit, European recession will hit world growth; The head of the World Bank warned global growth could come in lower than the 2.6% predicted in June amid “Brexit, Europe’s recession and trade uncertainty”.

Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD traded sideways through the NY morning session, ranging between 1.0982 and near two-week highs of 1.1000, in the Asian session the pair fell back to 1.0966. The Dollar overall appears to be showing signs of peaking, with incoming U.S. data last week showing significant indications of economic slowing. Europe has its own growth issues as well of course, though with markets pricing in another Fed rate cut at the end of October, EURUSD may have some room to run to the upside in the coming sessions.

* USDJPY topped at 107.07 in US session following comments from White House advisor Kudlow, who said that a US-China deal was possible and negotiators could make progress this week, and Washington is open to looking at China’s proposals. The comments came after China over the weekend indicated it is not open to a broad scale trade agreement. USD strength continued overnight with the pair touching 107.44.

Main Macro Events Today

* Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to drop at -0.2% for September, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.5% for headline PPI, versus a 1.8% pace of August. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.0%-2.3% range over coming months, while core prices should oscillate in a 2.0%-2.5% range.

Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#182
Date : 9th October 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th October 2019.

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FX News Today

* European Outlook: Stock market sentiment remains very cautious with Brexit risks and signs of fresh US-Sino tensions ahead of this week’s trade talks weighing on confidence.

* Talks between the UK and the EU on trade are expected to officially break down this week, with “leaked” memos out of Westminster putting the blame firmly in the EU’s court and threatening those EU countries that support another delay of the Brexit date. UK PM Johnson is due to meet Irish Pm Varadkar later.

* Overnight – US-China relations stressed further as new visa restrictions by the US were introduced. Trade talks on going and high level contact still scheduled Thursday & Friday.
Equities markets fell 1.5% in the US and Nikkei has closed down 0.6%.

* USD keeps the bid due to safe haven status, even after a Dovish Powell hints at rate cut (s) and starting to repurchase assets again.

Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD pulled back to 1.0945 lows into the London close, after failing to decisively take out the key 1.1000 level over the past four sessions. US based accounts were sellers from near the open, stepping in over 1.0990. Safe-haven flows into Dollars and Treasuries were noted. Last Thursday’s 1.0940 low is the near term downside target, followed by Wednesday’s 1.0904 bottom. Trades on London open at 1.0960 pivot point.

* Cable Cable was crushed to one-month low of 1.2195 in N.Y. morning trade, down from London highs over 1.2300. The BBC cited a UK government source saying that Germany’s Merkel conveyed to PM Johnson that a deal based on his government’s proposals was “overwhelmingly unlikely.”. The development makes it a near certainty that Johnson won’t have a deal by the October-19 deadline set out in the newly created parliamentary bill that would require the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension in Brexit to January 31.

Main Macro Events Today

* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. July’s JOLTS job openings came out at 7.217M.

* FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. FOMC trimmed rates 25 bps, as expected, but with 3 dissents. In the last FOMC statement, on July 31 decision showed mixed views, two dissents for steady policy, two participants who wanted 50 bps in cuts and several wanted steady stance.

Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#183
Date : 10th October 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2019.

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FX News Today

* US yields corrected slightly from yesterday’s highs. Asian bond markets remained under pressure, while stock markets traded mixed with conflicting trade headlines making for a jumpy session.

* Bloomberg reported that the US is weighing to agree to a previously hammered out currency pact as a team of Chinese negotiators, including Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington.

* There were also reports in the US that the Trump administration will grant licences that would allow US firms to sell no sensitive supplies to Huawei.

* US stock futures are in red, with the headlines accompanying the trade talks, likely to keep markets volatile and jittery.

* GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly higher, though, with Brexit developments in focus as UK PM Johnson is travelling to Ireland in search for a breakthrough on the Irish border conundrum.

* German trade surplus declined as exports dropped -1.8% m/m in August.

* ECB’s Rehn plays down divisions at ECB, banks on Lagarde to heal the rift. The Governing Council member said the FT story that said Draghi ignored advice from his own officials to push through the restart of asset purchases was “greatly exaggerated”, adding that Lagarde’s team-building ability should help to bridge the splits at the council.

* The WTI future fell back to $52.54 per barrel.

Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD rally above 1.099 in the European open. The 1.1000 level remains key for EURUSD, with Wednesday marking the fifth consecutive session that EURUSD has tried and failed to break through the level. A decisive close above this level could strengthen the positive bias for EUR.

* USDJPY was a bit stronger through the Asia session, rallying to 107.76 highs, and remaining above the 107.40 since then. Better risk taking levels brought buyers in, as hopes for progress on the US/China trade war got a lift into Thursday’s high-level meetings in Washington. China said that it was open to a partial trade agreement. Given the history of the talks however, a smooth outcome is anything but guaranteed, and Yen bears will have to remain on their toes.

* USDCAD headed to 1.3310 down from Asian highs of 1.3344. The modest sell-off came as oil prices rallied on news there may be some progress on the US-China trade front. The 200-day moving average at 1.3288 remains a good support level, with the pairing holding above the level for nearly a week now. Further oil price gains could see a break though, with the next downside target being the 1.3260-70 region.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. August’s GDP is expected to lower to 0% following the 0.3% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in August.

* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – Event of the Week –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB not only cut the deposit rate but also announced a new open-ended asset purchase program, worth EUR 20 bln a month, while removing the time frame in the rate guidance.

* Consumer Price Index ex Energy and Food (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Consumer Price Index is suggestive of how the economy is performing, with expectations standing flat for the September headline release. A 0.2% core price increase is expected, following respective August readings of 0.1% and 0.3%.

Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#184
Date : 14th October 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th October 2019.

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* No-deal Brexit risks are looking more real than ever, with reports suggesting that talks will officially break down this week ahead of the upcoming EU summit on 17 and 18 October. Elsewhere, further US data and Fedspeak could provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cut.

Tuesday – 15 October 2019

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y.

* ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to slip to 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, down from 3.8%y/y. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.8%, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month.

* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter.

Wednesday – 16 October 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August.

* Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%.

* Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure.

* Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00)

Thursday – 17 October 2019

* European Council Summit on Brexit

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month.

* Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively

* Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back.

* Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad.

* Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20)

Friday – 18 October 2019

* European Council Summit on Brexit

* China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

* Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%.

* Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30)

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#185
Date : 21st October 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st October 2019.

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* The week ahead will definitely not be a quite one, with high anxiety on Brexit, the last ECB policy meeting before Mario draghi hand over the ECB presidency to Christine Lagarde and few significant US data prior FED on October 30.

Monday – 21 October 2019

* Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German PPI is expected to drop to -0.2% for September. As expected readings would result in a y/y loss of 0.3% for headline PPI, versus a 0.3% pace for August.

Tuesday – 22 October 2019

* Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m in August compared to 0.4% m/m in July, with the ex-autos component down -0.3%.

* Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Home sales have regained their status as an important indicator after the financial crisis and can have a strong effect on the markets. The release is expected to record a slight -0.2% pull-back in September to a 5.480 mln pace, after a bounce to 5.490 mln in August. In Q2, we saw an average sales pace of 5.287 mln, and we expect a better 5.463 mln pace in Q3.

Thursday – 24 October 2019

* Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – September PMIs showed a marked contraction in manufacturing activity and a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for October, as German Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 40 and composite at 49.2, which it is still below neutral. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.2. The overall Markit for Eurozone is seen at 49.4, signalling stagnation and highlighting the risk that the weakness in manufacturing sectors is spreading.

* Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold after Draghi’s parting shot at the last meeting. The outgoing president pushed through another deposit rate cut and an open ended asset purchase program against the opposition of some of the more senior national central bank heads and incoming president Lagarde will face the task of uniting the board and dealing with growing demands for a comprehensive revision of the ECB’s policy setting framework and in particular the inflation target. Draghi’s last press conference meanwhile will likely focus heavily on calls for fiscal measures to boost the economy in a challenging international environment.

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.8% in September, after gains of 0.2% in August, thanks to an expected transportation orders drop. Boeing orders rose to a still-lean 25 from 18 in August.

* Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in October, to 50.1 from 51.1, while Services PMIs are likely to rise to 51.3 from 50.9, indicating a slowdown in the sector that has been hit by global trade tensions.

Friday – 25 October 2019

* German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – In September, the German IFO business confidence came in slightly higher than expected at 94.6. In October, however, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly lower at 94.4. The more forward looking expectations reading is anticipated at 91.8 from 90.8.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#186
Date : 22nd October 2019.

FX Action | 22nd October 2019.


Commodity currencies posted fresh highs while the Yen retained a softening bias amid a backdrop of rising global equity markets following upbeat rhetoric from both the US and Chinese officials.

Q3 corporate earnings have so far been positive, albeit with expectations having been guided lower in the run in to the show-and-tell season.

AUDUSD posted a two-month high at 0.6682,AUDJPY a 12-week high, while NZDUSD ascended into one-month high territory. NZDUSD continues to support an overall bullish outlook after the formation of inverse head and shoulders pattern. It is currently retests 8-week Resistance which is close to 38.2% Fib. level since July’s peak. A move above the latter could strengthen the outlook, with next level to be watched at 50% Fib. , at 0.6500. Support is seta t 0.6350-0.6350.
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USDCAD,meanwhile, has printed a 3-month low at 1.3071. The pair is down by about 1% form week-ago levels, and is showing just over a 4% decline on the year-to-date. This follows what is now a three consecutive weeks of underperformance. A recovery in global risk appetite (much reduced no-deal Brexit risk, cancellation of planned U.S. December tariff hikes on Chinese goods) has helped underpin the Canadian Dollar, and other commodity-correlating currencies.
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On the domestic scene, Canadian PM Trudeau’s Liberals are set to form a minority government after a tight election yesterday, though they will have to rely on the left-leaning NDP party to govern, which wants to raise corporate income tax rates and implement a wealth tax, and opposes the Trans Mountain oil pipeline project, which is seen as negatives from the perspective of financial markets.

Elsewhere, EURUSD, after coming under pressure yesterday in the wake of printing a 2-month high at 1.1179, settled in the mid 1.1100s. The Euro is showing net gains of around 1% against both the Dollar and Yen from week-ago levels, with markets having pretty much unwound the perceived risk for there being a no-deal Brexit scenario on October 31. Currently it reversed lower at 1.1144, while it remains choppy so far, bouncing between 1.1133-1.1160 area.

GBPUSD has settled in the mid 1.2900s after yesterday posting a 5-month high at 1.3012. The pair is up by nearly 9% from the major-trend lows seen in early September. Regarding Brexit, the UK’s Parliament will today start voting on the legislation for PM Johnson’s divorce deal. This needs to pass at the first go if Brexit is going to happen on October 31. Once the deal has been fully ratified it would still remain subject to the “meaningful vote.”

The opposition are scheming to either amend the deal so that there is an all-UK customs arrangement, which is unlikely to have sufficient support, and to made the Brexit deal subject to a “confirmatory” referendum, which looks unlikely to pass, though not an impossibility.
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#187
Date : 24th October 2019.

Sterling, Extension and Election Polls 24th October 2019.

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* Everyone concerned is presently waiting on the EU to grant the UK an extension in the Brexit deadline from October 31. The Irish PM along with some EU heavy weights have made public their backing for an extension, out to January 31, though this will have to be agreed by all of the EU27 member states.

* The widespread expectation is that they will, which is why Sterling is not crashing presently, as a refusal would risk a no-deal Brexit scenario at month end. UK PM Johnson met with opposition leader Corbyn earlier to discuss a timetable for ratifying the Brexit deal, with Parliament having voted to reject the government’s program bill to fast-track the legislative process. They failed to reach an agreement.

* Johnson has stated that the government can’t go on and that he will call for a general election in the event EU permits a 3-month extension. He needs 2/3 of MPs to support this, being an out-of-cycle election.

* As for Labour, some political pundits are surprised that the party isn’t pushing for a second referendum on EU membership rather than a general election given its poor standing in polling.

Overall, the most likely scenario from here is that the EU formally permits an extension and a UK general election is staged by early December.

* In the currency market, Cable has recouped above 1.2900 level since New York session yesterday. According to ING, bulls could hope that Cable is going to make a massive rally through to 1.40.

* “We see a Cable move to 1.40 being too much of a stretch this year – and if it were to happen it would probably involve us and the market massively under-estimating the size of the squeeze in short UK positions – those positions including equities, where fund managers have been underweight UK equities since 2014.”
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UK polling ahead of likely general election.

*Politico’s poll of polls shows PM Johnson’s Conservative Party to be out in front with 35% support.

*The Brexit Party, which favours nothing but a “clean” — aka “no deal” (given the Northern Ireland border problem) — Brexit, are running with 11% support. Should the two form a coalition, their combined support is 46%.The Labour Party has 25% support.

*The Liberal Democrats are in third spot with 18% support — a combined support with Labour, of 43% in a hypothetical coalition, less than the Tory-Brexit total.

As for other parties, the Green Party has 5% and Scotland’s SNP has 3%. It should be stressed that the Conservatives have been ruling out forming an alliance or coalition with the Brexit Party, fearing it would cost the votes of the not-so-hardline Brexit supporters, while the Liberal Democrats have also been saying that they couldn’t contemplate a coalition with Labour while Jeremy Corbyn is their leader, who is unpopular and widely blamed for the historical low-polling that his party has been seeing, and who would put off politically homeless pro-EU Tory voters from shifting their way.

With the election likely to boil down to a shootout between pro-Brexit and pro-EU sides, what the Tory and Brexit parties will be fearing most are voting pacts between Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Plaid Cymru (of Wales) and the SNP, whereby they would tactically withdraw candidates from contesting seats on a seat-by-seat basis in a way that would prevent splitting the anti-Tory Party/anti-Brexit Party vote.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
0 x

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#188
Date : 25th October 2019.

Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk 25th October 2019.

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Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk – Gold above 1505, USD overall steady, GBP up from lows seen yesterday, while JPY is retaining soft tone. The EU, meanwhile, will reportedly delay their official response to the UK extension from today to Monday or Tuesday next week.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

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