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Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. - Page 44 - CryptoHeresy ⚡️

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#431
Date : 10 August 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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As the month of August began,uncertainties both fresh and familiar keep challenging the markets, driving volatility in the stock market and pushing bond rates to record lows. The worries over the second wave of the viral pandemic, US-China frictions, the government’s inability to pass a new US stimulus bill and the whatever-it-takes policy commitments from the core central banks all expected to hold in the week ahead as well.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 10 August 2020

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The July Chinese CPI is expected to have improved on a monthly basis, with higher outcome at 0.2% m/m from -0.1% m/m

Tuesday – 11 August 2020

Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 0.4% in June from 0.7%. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%.

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German August ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have inclined at 62.4 compared to 59.3 in July.

Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI for PPI in July is expected with a 0.4% gain with a 0.1% core price increase. As expected readings would result in a rise for the y/y headline PPI metric to -0.7% from -0.8% in June. The y/y core reading is assumed to remain in the 0.2%-0.5% area over the near future, with the downward hit from reduced aggregate demand proving greater than the boost for prices from supply disruptions, though supply constraints for some sectors should prove increasingly important as we pass through Q3.

Wednesday – 12 August 2020

Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the OCR (Official Cash Rate) at the current record low 0.25%. The OCR is the means by which the RBNZ manages a dovish monetary policy for the New Zealand economy, by lending overnight cash at 25 basis points above the OCR, and receiving deposits and paying interest at 25 basis points below the OCR. The bank expected to expand QE, when the Bank’s bimonthly monetary policy statement and press conference are also scheduled, since last time it stressed a willingness to take further stimulus measures if necessary while noting persisting downside risks to the economy, adding that currency strength remains a negative for NZ exporters.

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. The preliminary Q2 GDP is expected to slightly improved at -1.8% q/q however it remains contracted in a quarterly and yearly basis.

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI for July is expected at a 0.3% July and with a 0.1% core price rate, following June figures of 0.6% for the headline and 0.2% for the core. The headline will be boosted by an estimated 5% July increase for CPI gasoline prices. As-expected July figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 0.7%, up from 0.6% in June.

Thursday – 13 August 2020

Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Both the unemployment rate and the employment change are expected to have grown in July, at 7.8% m/m and 394.2K respectively.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation for July is anticipated flat.

Friday – 14 August 2020

Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Following the -1.8% m/m contraction in China retail sales in June, they are expected to rise slightly by 0.3% in July.

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Q2 GDP s.a. is expected to remain contracted at -15.0%y/y and -12.1% q/, with national GDP rates varying pretty much along the lines of virus developments and depending and the extend of lockdown measures. The key question for the future is when the initial rebound will be, but if that can be sustained and broadened into a lasting recovery even when governments and ECB start to reign in their very generous support. The agreement on an EU wide stimulus package has helped to bolster confidence in the project, but it remains to be seen whether the package really is sufficient to strengthen long term growth in the Eurozone.

Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – July increases of 1.0% for headline retail sales is expected and 0.8% for the ex-auto figure, following June increases of 7.5% for the headline and 7.3% ex-autos. We expect a 5% increase for the CPI gasoline index, and rising sales volume as well should allow a 5% service station sales rebound as well. Real consumer spending is expected to contract at a rate of -33.2% in Q2 before an assumed 33% bounce in Q3.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The August preliminary Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 79.0, from 72.5 in the final July reading.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#432
Date : 13th August 2020.

FX Update – August 13 – Weaker Dollar & Stronger Sterling.
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The Dollar is down for a second day, with the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex printing a six-day low at 93.08 to nearly fully unwind the gains seen in the wake of last Friday’s US July jobs report, when we printed an eight-day high at 93.87.

Some market narratives have been attributing the Dollar’s ebb as being a return of the currency’s inverse correlation with stock market direction, along with the perception that the Fed has strategically dropped its concern about inflation risk, which has driven real US yields into negative territory. These factors appear to be outweighing the improvement in the US economy and downward trend in new coronavirus cases. As for Washington’s tensions with Beijing, this hasn’t been much of a concern for Wall Street, with most onlookers anticipating this weekend’s meetings to review progress on the Phase 1 trade deal will go well, even though China has been lagging behind in its purchases of US farm and energy goods.

Among the main Dollar pairings, EURUSD climbed to a six-day high at 1.1838, putting the 27-month high seen last Thursday at 1.1917 back in the scopes. USDJPY extended a moderate correction from yesterday’s three-week high at 107.03, posting a low at 106.57. The Yen was more mixed against other currencies, with EURJPY remaining buoyant, just off the 16-month high that was pegged yesterday at 126.23, while AUDJPY traded softer after the cross peaked at a three-week high yesterday. The Nikkei 225 hit a six-month high, which followed a strong close on Wall Street yesterday, with the S&P 500 finishing just a whisker below a record closing peak. European stocks have opened lower with GER30 holding over 13,000 at 13,025 and the UK100 trades down around 6,200. AUDUSD edged out a two-day peak at 0.7188. Australian July employment data showed a forecast-smashing 114,700 rise in the headline, while the June figure was revised higher, though lockdowns across the country are now blighting the immediate outlook. USDCAD settled just above Wednesday’s six-month low at 1.3227.
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Sterling is trading mixed, edging out a two-day high at 1.3092 against the Dollar, while also gaining on the Yen and Aussie Dollar, but holding steady-to-softer versus the Euro and some other currencies. Yesterday’s preliminary UK Q2 GDP data showed a gargantuan 20.4% q/q contraction to confirm the technical definition of recession following Q1’s 2.2% shrink. The data wasn’t a surprise given the lockdown that was in place to varying degrees throughout the quarter. June GDP rose by 8.7% m/m, however, with June production data showing a robust rebound and beating expectations in the main headline readings, while high frequency data and a myriad of anecdotal evidence point to a strong rebound in the current quarter. The government’s furlough scheme has greatly limited the impact on the employment market. We have been talking down the Pound, to a degree, having seen limited scope for the currency to sustain its recent patch of outperformance. The BoE last week delivered a warily-upbeat outlook, though with localized lockdowns and most media doing their utmost to maintain maximum fear of a second wave of coronavirus infections, we take a circumspect view of the outlook over the coming months, anticipating a plateauing in economic rebound momentum. Manchester, Preston, Bradford and Aberdeen are back in lockdown and there is a number of new travel restrictions with other countries. The furlough scheme will end in late October, which is likely to trigger a wave of job losses, particularly in the airline, retail and hospitality sectors.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#434
Date : 14th August 2020.

FX Update – August 14 – USD Consolidates at lows.
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EURUSD, H4

The main currencies have settled in narrow ranges, with the Dollar consolidating above yesterday’s lows after a two-day decline. The USDIndex (DXY) has steadied in the lower 93.0s, above yesterday’s one-week low at 92.93. EURUSD has concurrently reached a stasis in the lower 1.1800s, below Thursday’s one-week peak at 1.1865. The pair has been in a strong uptrend since early May, producing last week’s 27-month high at 1.1917, though upside momentum has flagged over the last two weeks. The advent of the 750 bln Euro recovery fund and the fact that Europe has come through the pandemic ahead of the US have been underpinning EURUSD, along with the perception that the Fed is strategically being less attentive to inflation risks, which pushed real Treasury yields deep into negative territory. This dynamic looks to be shifting in certain aspects, which may curtail EURUSD’s uptrend. New coronavirus cases are dropping in sun states as community immunity builds up, having already done so in other parts of the US, while high frequency data and the July employment report are evidencing rebounding economic activity.
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Elsewhere today, USDJPY has been plying a narrow range below yesterday’s three-week high at 107.06. Cable has settled near 1.3050, holding well within the broadly sideways range that’s been seen over the last week. Ditto for AUD-USD, which has been making time near the 0.7150 mark.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#435
Date : 17th August 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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As the month of August moves into week 3, uncertainties both fresh and familiar keep challenging the markets, driving volatility in the bond market as rates bounce off record lows and stock markets consolidate. The cooling worries over the second wave of the viral pandemic, and continuing US-China frictions, even as talks are due to resume and the impasse over a new US stimulus bill all expected to hold in the week ahead.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Tuesday – 18 August 2020

RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – No surprises from the RBA in their last meeting are expected, the cautious “do all we can” prose is likely to continue. Lowe talked of interest rate hikes not being on the cards for at least 3 years this week.

Building Permits & Housing Starts (USD, GMT 12:30) – Permits are expected to show a rise to 1.30 million form 1.258 million last month whilst Starts are expected to decline from 1.186 million to 1.70 million, overall this would still show a resilient US housing market.

Wednesday – 19 August 2020

FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The Federal Open Market Committee minutes ability to shock have lost the power they once had, however, they remain the key documented account of the discussions that take place (on-line) between the decision makers of the FED. Watch for the tone of the talk of recovery, any reference to negative interest rates (even a reference would be something), the spectre of inflation and the on-going issues with the yield curve.

Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The headline CPI for July is expected at a 0.6% July (y/y) and with a 1.4% core price rate, following June figures of 0.6% for the headline and 1.1% for the core.

OPEC – JMMC Meeting (All Day)

Thursday – 20 August 2020

US Weekly Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Following last week’s final breach of 1.0 million this week claims data will be eagerly watched to see if the decline continues.

German Consumer Confidence & PPI Data (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German PPI & Consumer confidence will provide another key indicator to the recovery in German sentiment and prices. Last week the COVID cases showed a worryingly geographically widespread spike.

Friday – 21 August 2020

Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 07:30) – expected to show a decline to 50.3 from 54.9 last time.

UK Markit Services PMI (GBP GMT 08:30) – expected to show a decline from last month’s 56.5 to 55.9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#436
HFblogNews wrote:
January 2nd, 2019, 11:03 am
Date : 2nd January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd January 2019.


FX News Today

* Markets didn’t have a good start to 2019 as disappointing data out of China rekindled concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.

* China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.7, which together with the fact that both private and official PMIs suggest a correction in orders inflow saw investors heading for cover.

* Japan remained closed but Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -2.68% and -1.38% respectively, while the ASX lost -1.57%.

* Chinese 10-year yields dropped -12.1 bp and stock futures in the US and Europe are also heading south, indicating wide spread losses for stock markets on the first trading day of the year.

* The broad market movement suggests a drop of the Dollar, as a cautious mood prevailed on the first trading day of the year on concerns over global growth, the US government shutdown and a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

* In addition, the worse than expected Dallas Fed index, which plunged to a 30-month low in the last day of the month also had its bearing on the Dollar.

* Oil prices also fell back and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 44.82 per barrel.

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Markit Manufacturing PMI – The European manufacturing index is expected to have remained flat at 51.4 in December. Among the countries, the Italian and Spanish indices are expected to have decreased slightly, while it is expected to have remained similar for the rest of the large countries.

* UK Markit Manufacturing PMI – In the UK, manufacturing is expected to have deteriorated in December and stand at 52.5, compared to 53.1 in November.
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#437
Date : 18th August 2020.

FX Update – August 18 – Dollar in the Doldrums.
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USDIndex, H4 & Monthly
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The Dollar has continued to weaken, which pushed the USDIndex (DXY) to a new 27-month low at 92.30. EURUSD correspondingly rose to a 12-day peak at 1.1943, and another 27-month peak. Cable rallied by 0.5% in making a 5-month high at 1.3198, while EURGBP reversed most of the gains it saw yesterday in making a 0.9035 low. AUDUSD pegged an 6-month high at 0.7252, and USDCAD descended to a 7-month low at 1.3155. Aside from the generally softer US Dollar, the Canadian currency has been buoyed by continued perkiness in oil prices. Yesterday the OPEC+ group said there was near full compliance on supply quotas amount members, lifting front-month WTI crude futures to a $42.99 peak, which is just over 50 cents shy of the five-month peak that was clocked in early August. In the mix has been a measure of Yen outperformance, with USDJPY ebbing to a 12-day low at 105.41 while EURJPY and AUDJPY drifted to respective six- and four-day lows, although both recouped losses during the London AM session.
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In stock markets, yesterday’s tech-led rally on Wall Street inspired the MSCI Asia-Pacific index to rally to near to its pre-pandemic January high, while Europe’s STOXX 600 was showing a moderately 0.3% gain in early PM trading. The White House announced yesterday further restrictions on China’s Huawei, which are aimed at limiting the company’s access to commercially available chips and which has the potential to disrupt global supply chains. President Trump, meanwhile, stated that China is meeting its obligations under the Phase 1 trade deal, although a review of the deal has been delayed. Beijing announced that it will be making an anti-dumping inquiry on Australian wine imports. In focus is tomorrow’s publication of the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting, which comes amid market speculation that the Fed may adopt an average inflation target, specifically with the aim of pushing inflation above the 2% target. This has been a Dollar negative, as it has driven real Treasury yields deep into negative terrain.

US Equity markets have opened in positive tones on the back of strong quarterly earnings from key retailers Walmart and Home Depot, USA30 trades at today’s pivot point at 27,855, USA100 sits at 11,338 and the USA500 tests intra-day all-time highs at R1 level at 3391.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#438
Date : 19th August 2020.

EURUSD holds 1.1900 gains.
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EURUSD, H4

Eurozone HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.4% y/y, in line with the preliminary release. The uptick in the headline rate came despite the dampening impact of Germany’s temporary cut to the VAT rate. Energy prices also remain much lower than a year ago and core inflation lifted to 1.2% y/y in June from 0.8% y/y in the previous month.

Mixed signals then for the ECB, and while there may be nothing in the data to suggest a serious risk of deflation, the low headline rate will add to the arguments of those at the council who are pushing for a more symmetric inflation target that would require the ECB to let inflation run above target for a while following a period of below-target headline rates. In the current situation that would push the first rate hike even further into the future. A similar debate seems to be happening at the FOMC, which is currently also conducting a framework review.

EURUSD has settled off yesterday’s 27-month peak at 1.1965, concurrently with the USDIndex (DXY) consolidating recent losses above Tuesday’s 17-month low at 92.15. The softer dollar hypothesis, which has been dominant in markets for several months, is currently being challenged. Most incoming US data are showing a strong rebound in economic activity, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq equity indices have scaled to record highs. News that House Speaker Pelosi said that the Democrats are willing to trim their proposals has been taken as a positive, as it increases the odds that the Republicans and Democrats will break their stalemate and reach a deal on the next pandemic fiscal rescue package. July data showed an acceleration in homebuilding in the US to the most in almost four years. Coronavirus infections are now dropping sharply in the recently afflicted sun states, such as Arizona, Texas and Florida, indicating the downward phase of a classic Gompertz curve progression of respiratory illness as community immunity builds up.

In focus is today’s publication of the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting, which comes amid market speculation that the Fed may adopt an average inflation target, specifically with the aim of pushing inflation above the 2% target. This has been a dollar negative, as it has driven real Treasury yields deep into negative terrain. Any confirmation of this would bolster the softer dollar hypothesis, and likely push EURUSD above 1.2000, while any lack of reference to this issue would have an inverse effect. The advent of the 750 bln Euro recovery fund, which has reduced perceived EU break-up risks, and the fact that Europe has come through the pandemic ahead of the US (having been impacted earlier), have also been underpinning factors of EURUSD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#439
Date : 24th August 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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Moving into a new week, the focus is now squarely on 2 days Jackson Hole Symposium. Uncertainty over the virus and recovery front, on the EU-UK trade negotiation front and center US-China tensions remain the major drivers of the market.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Tuesday – 25 August 2020

German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to improve to 91.7 following the stronger than expected July reading, when the headline climbed to 90.5 from 86.3.

Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 94.0 from 92.6 in July, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. This compares to an 18-year high of 137.9 in October of 2018 and a recession-low of 25.3 in February of 2009. The expectations index should rise to 93.6 in August from 91.5. All of the available confidence measures were oscillating near historic highs before being crushed by COVID-19, and even with recent drop-backs, it’s remarkable how firm the consumer measures have stayed relative to prior recessions.

Wednesday – 26 August 2020

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 4.0% in July with a 12% bounce in transportation orders, after a 7.6% headline orders climb in June that included a 20.2% transportation orders surge. The durable good orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 1.1%. Defense orders should bounce by 19%, following a -16.8% June drop. Boeing orders fell to zero planes from 1 in June. The vehicle assembly rate rose to 11.9 mln from 8.4 mln units in June, versus a 3.7 mln trough from the last recession in January of 2009. Durable good shipments should rise 6.0%, and inventories should fall -0.3%.

Thursday – 27 August 2020

Jackson Hole Symposium – DAY 1.

Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 05:45) – In Switzerland GDP is expected to sink further to -8.0% q/q, after the 2.6% contraction seen in the first quarter.

Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) –We expect a boost in the -32.9% Q2 GDP figure to -32.4%, with hikes for consumption, wholesale inventories, imports, exports, nonresidential construction and residential construction and retail inventories, but trimmings for both equipment spending and factory inventories. The Q2 GDP data capture the powerful impact of mandatory closures, which left Q2 contraction rates of 20%-40% for most measures of demand, and larger 50%-65% declines for foreign trade.

Fed Chair Powell’s speech.

Friday – 28 August 2020

Jackson Hole Symposium – DAY 2.

Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – In Q1 Canada revealed a -8.2% pandemic driven drop after the revised 0.6% gain in Q4, with Q1 coming in a bit better than expected but still marking a hefty pull-back in activity as lockdown measures shuttered much of the economy in the second half of March. Indeed, March GDP plunged -7.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% gain in February (was flat). Expectation is for a -40% plunge in Q2 as the economy is devastated by the lockdowns, even as the easing of those measures so far in May suggests that the economy bottomed out in April. A 25% bounce in GDP is penciled in for Q3.

Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to remain unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

#440
Date : 25th August 2020.

The Europe Brief.
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The round of August confidence data has so far been mixed, as the services sector registers the fallout from lockdowns and the resurgence of new Covid-19 infections. Travel restrictions and new social distancing measures hit the services sector and consumer confidence especially in countries relying on tourism. Downside risks to the outlook continue to linger then, even as positive headlines on vaccines and treatment are offering a way out.

German Q2 GDPwas revised slightly higher with today’s release – to a still firmly negative -9.7% q/q, from -10.1% q/q reported initially. The breakdown not surprisingly showed a pretty broad based contraction, with only government consumption helping to dampen the blow. Private consumption meanwhile contracted -10.9% q/q and exports slumped -20.3%, versus a -16.0% q/q decline in imports as borders were closed and supply chains disrupted.

Beyond the temporary impact of lockdowns, the most worrying part of the report is the -19.6% q/q dip in equipment investment, which followed a -7.3% q/q decline in the previous quarter and could suggest that companies are not expecting a quick rebound.
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The manufacturing sector at least continues to rebound and after a rise in Germany’s preliminary composite PMI German Ifo business confidence today that jumped to 92.6 in August, from 90.5 in July. A better than expected number, that registered a broad based improvement, especially in the current conditions indicator. The breakdown for the diffusion index, which gives the balance of positive and negative answers, showed services sentiment lifting to 7.8 from 2.1, while manufacturing improved to a still negative -5.4, from -12.1 in the previous month. All in all a broad based improvement that should go some way to restore confidence in the recovery especially against the background of positive headlines on Covid-19 vaccines and treatment.
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The Eurozone August PMI (August 21) revealed a more mixed picture, however, in the preliminary release. Developments were uneven across countries with France more hit than Germany, although final readings will likely show that Spain and Italy suffered even more from the renewed restrictions for the services sector.

With inflation still at very low levels, central bankers have enough room to manoeuvre. Eurozone HICP inflation may have lifted slightly in July, although with the headline confirmed at 0.4% y/y in the final reading, it remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. Part of this is of course due to special factors, with energy prices still far below the levels seen last year and July readings also impacted by the dampening impact of Germany’s temporary cut to the VAT rate. Indeed, core inflation lifted to 1.2% y/y in July from 0.8% y/y in June, although even that is lower than the ECB would like to see.

ECB still debating inflation target

While there may be nothing in the inflation data to suggest a serious risk of deflation, the low headline rate will add to the arguments of those at the council who are pushing for a more symmetric inflation target that would require the ECB to let inflation run above target for a while following a period of below target headline rates. In the current situation that would push the first rate hike even further into the future. A similar debate seems to be happening at the FOMC, which – like the ECB – is also conducting a framework review. There is some speculation that Fed-chairman Powell will give some hint on average inflation targeting at the Jackson Hole conference, which in the past has been the stage for coordinated signals from central banks.

EUR continues to benefit from stimulus agreement

EURUSD has lifted to the mid 1.1800s today, posting an intraday peak at 1.1843, which is 60 pips up on Monday’s New York closing level. The Euro has also rallied against the Yen, which is the day’s biggest loser, and most other currencies. While a bout of general dollar selling has helped to lift EURUSD, there have concurrently been a couple of cues to buy euros, including the better than expected Ifo reading and optimistic comments from German finance minister Scholz.
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Still the pair’s 5-month rally out of sub-1.0650 levels of mid March has been losing momentum in recent weeks, even it still produced new 27-month highs. Last week was the first down week the pair has seen out of the last nine weeks. A sustained correction is increasingly likely. The US is clearly through the worst of the pandemic, the economy is rebounding, Wall Street is on an record-breaking winning streak, and Treasury yields have perked up in recent sessions despite an expected dovish lean from Fed Chair Powell at his keynote address this Thursday.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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